Election 2008

It wasn’t quite “Dewey Defeats Truman,” but after the Jan. 8 Granite State primary confounded many of the pollsters and pundits, one of the key story lines that emerged in coverage of the McCain and Clinton victories was the media’s proclivity to predict and pre-analyze the results.

The media were busy anointing winners after the Jan. 3 Iowa caucuses. And the theme of change and surprise also resonated throughout much of the commentary. But a PEJ look at the caucus post-mortems finds that perhaps the most distinct aspect of the coverage was the certainty that something major had occurred that night in Iowa.

Barack Obama makes an early play for "YouTube moment of the 2008 campaign"

Summary of Findings On the eve of the Iowa caucuses, Rudy Giuliani’s once solid lead in nationwide polling of Republican voters has vanished. The latest nationwide survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press finds about equal levels of support for John McCain (22%), Rudy Giuliani (20%), and Mike Huckabee (17%). […]

For Democratic candidates, the decisive factors in Iowa and New Hampshire are personal and tactical; for GOP contestants, however, the ultimate outcome may be decided by the relative strength of newly combative ideological elements.

From holiday distractions to winter weather, the people who will be measuring voters' preferences in primaries and caucuses around the nation will be dealing with unprecedented problems. Here's how they plan to do it.

Summary of Findings Oprah Winfrey’s well-publicized appearances with Barack Obama have raised Obama’s visibility, especially among African Americans. Roughly a quarter of Americans (26%) say they have heard more about Obama recently than any other presidential candidate, up from just 10% in November. Meanwhile, though Hillary Clinton remains the most visible candidate overall, the proportion […]

Summary of Findings Voters in the early primary states of Iowa and New Hampshire are being inundated with mail, phone calls and other contacts from the presidential campaigns. In particular, overwhelming majorities of likely voters in both states have received pre-recorded calls, or “robo-calls,” about the campaign. However, far more Democratic voters than Republican voters […]

This report analyzes Census data and voting trends on a state-by-state basis to explore the potential of Latinos to be a "swing vote" in the 2008 presidential election.

Summary of Findings Republican voter sentiment in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina is highly fluid. Compared with Democratic voters, likely Republican voters in these three politically disparate states express less enthusiasm about their field of presidential candidates, and many Republicans voice only modest support for their choices. Mike Huckabee runs even with Mitt Romney […]