report | Nov 14, 2006

The Real Message of the Midterms

A sweeping election tends to invite sweeping conclusions -- and the Democrats' takeover of both houses of Congress this November provides a tempting array of opportunities for exaggeration or misinterpretation. With that in mind, let's look at the major lessons to be gleaned from the exit polls and opinion polls about how America voted this November.

report | Nov 14, 2006

Democrats Made Gains in All Regions of the Country

With roughly 95% of the votes tallied so far in House races across the country, the overall partisan breakdown is 52% for Democratic candidates, 46% for Republican candidates and 2% for others. In actual votes, Democratic House candidates in 2006 have already tallied nearly 5 million more votes than they did in 2002, while the Republican tally is down more than 3 million from four years ago.

report | Nov 8, 2006

Centrists Deliver for Democrats

The key to the strong Democratic showing yesterday was the support their candidates drew from moderate and independent voters, an analysis of the exit polls shows. With more than nine-in-ten Republicans and Democrats casting ballots for representatives of their parties, just as they did two years ago, the Democrats' 57%-39% advantage among independents proved crucial.

report | Nov 6, 2006

Democrats and Republicans See Different Realities

The vast divide between voters who intend to vote Democratic and Republican on November 7 extends well beyond matters of opinion. These voters also see the world quite differently.

report | Nov 1, 2006

Karl Rove’s Ground War Challenge

In an election environment which seems to favor the Democrats in so many ways, the Republicans continue to hold two strong cards; they have more money and they are better at getting out the vote than are the Democrats.

report | Nov 1, 2006

Voter Turnout and Congressional Change

In recent decades, there have been three basic ways that turnout has worked to produce the sort of "big wave" midterm that the Democrats are hoping for next week.

report | Oct 27, 2006

Lack of Competition in Elections Fails to Stir Public

The concern among some politicians and political experts over the lack of competitiveness in U.S. elections is generally not shared by the public. Moreover, voters appear to lack a clear sense of whether the elections in their own House districts are competitive or not.

report | Oct 26, 2006

Can Safe Seats Save the Republicans?

One of the biggest political questions in the final weeks of this Congressional campaign is whether the national trend in support for Democratic candidates is big enough to overcome the safe-seat redistricting that in recent years has led to fewer and fewer seats turning over in Congress.

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