Scott Keeter

Surveys that ask about voting can be made more accurate by validating respondents’ self-reported turnout with official voting records.

Here, we discuss the findings of a comprehensive report about the polling errors of 2020 and their implications for polling.

A new analysis of 2020 validated voters examines change and continuity in the electorate, both of which contributed to Joe Biden’s victory. It looks at how new voters and voters who turned out in either 2016, 2018 or both voted in the 2020 presidential election, and offers a detailed portrait of the demographic composition of the 2020 electorate.

Looking at final estimates of the outcome of the 2020 U.S. presidential race, 93% of national polls overstated the Democratic candidate’s support among voters, while nearly as many (88%) did so in 2016.

One year into the coronavirus pandemic, about a fifth of U.S. adults (21%) are experiencing high levels of psychological distress.

Given the errors in 2016 and 2020 election polling, how much should we trust polls that attempt to measure opinions on issues?

The 9-point fall in approval was the largest change between two Pew Research Center polls since Donald Trump took office.

Many who follow polls are asking how these errors could happen. Here, we’ll take a preliminary shot at answering that question.

Data tables from interviews we conducted with verified voters after the 2016 and 2018 elections may help answer some election 2020 questions.

Our analysis of verified voters examines what 2016 voters and nonvoters did in the 2018 midterm elections and offers a detailed portrait of the demographic composition and vote choices of the 2018 electorate.