While only a month ago voters were evenly split on which candidate would win the election, about six-in-ten voters (61%) now see Obama as most likely to win with only 17% seeing a McCain victory. While McCain supporters still believe their candidate will win — by a 38%-to-36% margin — their confidence has fallen sharply since mid-September, when 69% believed McCain would win. Since 1992, voters surveyed in early fall have consistently predicted correctly which candidate would win the election. Read More

Russell Heimlich  is a former web developer at Pew Research Center.