Only about one-third of Americans think climate scientists understand very well whether climate change is happening, according to a new Pew Research Center survey. And only about a quarter or less say climate scientists understand very well the effect climate change has on extreme weather, its causes and the best ways to address it.
Pew Research Center conducted this study to understand Americans’ views of how much climate scientists understand key aspects of climate change, and their role in policy debates on this topic. Read the accompanying report for more on Americans’ views of future harms from climate change.
This survey was conducted among 8,842 U.S. adults from Sept. 25 to Oct. 1, 2023. Everyone who took part in the survey is a member of the Center’s American Trends Panel (ATP), an online survey panel that is recruited through national, random sampling of residential addresses. This way, nearly all U.S. adults have a chance of selection. The survey is weighted to be representative of the U.S. adult population by gender, race and ethnicity, partisan affiliation, education and other categories. Read more about the ATP’s methodology.
Here are the questions used for this analysis, along with responses, and its methodology.
Americans rate climate scientists’ understanding of aspects of climate change slightly lower than they did two years ago and the same or lower than in 2016.
The share of Americans who say climate scientists understand very well whether climate change is occurring decreased from 37% in 2021 to 32% this year.
Similarly, the share of Americans who say climate scientists understand the causes of climate change very well decreased slightly from 28% in 2021 to 24% today. And only 13% of Americans now say climate scientists understand very well the best ways to address climate change, down from 18% in 2021.
Analysis of recent scientific publications finds widespread agreement among climate scientists that human activity is the primary cause of climate change. The Center recently conducted in-depth interviews to better understand the views of adults who say climate change is not an urgent issue and are unconvinced human activity is its main cause.
Partisan differences in views of climate scientists
Democrats continue to rate climate scientists’ understanding much higher than Republicans do.
When asked how well climate scientists understand whether climate change is happening, 52% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents say climate scientists understand this very well. In comparison, 51% of Republicans and Republican leaners say climate scientists understand this not too or not at all well.
Democrats are also four times as likely as Republicans to say climate scientists understand very well how climate change affects extreme weather events (40% vs. 10%). Scientific studies have found that extreme weather events will become more frequent and intense with climate change.
When it comes to the causes of climate change, 41% of Democrats say climate scientists understand this very well, compared with 7% of Republicans. About six-in-ten Republicans (59%) say climate scientists understand this not too or at all well.
Small shares of both Democrats and Republicans say climate scientists understand very well the best ways to address climate change, though Democrats are more likely to say this (23% vs. 4%, respectively). Republicans are far more likely than Democrats to say climate scientists understand this not too or at all well (71% vs. 24%).
Differences by education level and party
Democrats with more education rate climate scientists’ understanding higher than Democrats with less education. But how Republicans rate scientists’ understanding of aspects of climate change does not differ by education level. For example:
- 72% of Democrats with a postgraduate degree say climate scientists understand very well whether climate change is occurring. In comparison, 36% of Democrats with a high school degree or less say this – a 36 percentage point difference.
- Small shares of Republicans across education levels think climate scientists understand very well whether climate change is happening: 13% of Republicans with a postgraduate degree say this, as do 10% of Republicans with a high school degree or less.
These patterns also hold when Democrats and Republicans are asked about climate scientists’ understanding of the causes of climate change and its effect on extreme weather.
Past Center surveys have found that views about the role of human activity also vary by education level among Democrats but not Republicans.
Views of climate scientists’ influence on policy
When asked about climate scientists’ role in policy debates about climate change, half of Americans say they have too little influence. This share is down 4 points from 2021.
Smaller shares say climate scientists have too much (26%) or about the right amount of influence (22%) in policy debates.
In keeping with the wide partisan differences in ratings of climate scientists’ understanding of aspects of climate change, Democrats and Republicans are deeply divided about the appropriate role of climate scientists in policy debates.
Three-quarters of Democrats say climate scientists have too little influence in policy debates about climate change, while one-quarter of Republicans say the same – a difference of 50 points. About half of Republicans (49%) think climate scientists have too much influence.
There are also ideological divides within the GOP on climate scientists’ policy influence. Conservative Republicans are about twice as likely as moderate and liberal Republicans to say climate scientists have too much influence in public policy debates (60% vs. 29%).
Note: Here are the questions used for this analysis, along with responses, and its methodology.
